Copper exploration spending is heading higher again. History suggests it almost has to.
Copper prices are near all-time highs, and exploration budgets have consistently followed price signals with a lag. The industry’s response appears almost mechanical. Predictable.
But there is a problem.
A big one.
The last time exploration spending surged substantially, miners failed to deliver a corresponding wave of discoveries. Today, despite billions of dollars being deployed globally, major copper discoveries remain elusive, leaving the future supply pipeline increasingly dependent on a shrinking inventory of aging projects.
This happens at a time when major producers forecast that global copper demand will double over the next 30 years[i].
The question is no longer whether miners will spend more.
The question is whether spending more still works.
In this note, I investigated the relationship between copper prices, exploration budgets and discoveries over the last 36 years. This analysis provides insights into how miners will spend in 2026 and can help investors inform their strategies now and into 2027.
This piece is the first part of my analysis on this issue and also part 2 of my “Supply stress” series. All are available here on the Mining Investing Toolkit and on Substack.
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