Brazilian stocks are waking up

A giant is making moves.

This past weekend we learned that, despite multiple polls predicting a certain loss, the centre-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro scored a ~2-point win vs. incumbent Lula da Silva. Alas, not enough, so the second round will be held on October 25.

The markets were quick to react.

  • The Ibovespa index surged nearly 8% to a record high, the biggest gain in over six years.
  • EWZ did $8 billion in volume, just behind SPY and QQQ.

But the real story runs deeper. Much deeper, actually.


In this piece, I discuss how a new political cycle in Brazil may unlock a range of opportunities, with two areas where I see substantial potential for value creation in metals & mining.

PS: All research notes are available immediately on Substack and a day or so later on the Mining Investing Toolkit.

MSCI Brazil ETF vs S&P 500 Index, 2006-2026 | Monthly candles

This is member-only content. Become a member for immediate access.

Research focuses on trending investment themes. Mining Investing includes 3 modules with many sections each. Energy Transition Investing, 6 modules with 10 sections.

In total, 70+ posts/sections, with new ones published weekly.