Every major market regime of the last 35 years left clues before it happened.
In 1999, stocks were so dominant that commodities became almost irrelevant. Within a few years, it all changed. Commodities entered a decade-long boom.
In 2008, commodities became the consensus trade. The GFC put the final nail in that coffin.
Today, after years of equity outperformance driven by tech in general and lately, the AI boom, the commodities-to-stocks ratio sits near multi-decade lows again.
History doesn’t repeat exactly, but extreme relative valuations have frequently preceded regime shifts.
In this piece, I discuss the signs of an upcoming shift in commodity valuations and what could potentially be a transition to a new regime.
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